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There are some arguments here that I don't buy, but at least they mention Covid-19 as a significant contributing factor:
A 2022 EY report, titled Are universities of the past still the future?, notes that while the peak of the Covid-19 emergency has passed, universities globally are still grappling with the fallout of the pandemic.
[aside: I can't see any mention of peaks in that report; it just has "universities are still reeling from the global pandemic"]
... and their overall summary seems on-point:
Demographic shifts, geopolitical instability, changing workplace expectations and student preferences for super-flexibility and personalised learning comprises something of a perfect storm. Universities that adapt will be the ones that survive.
A few arguments in the breakdown seem odd to me:
- "declining birth rates in recent decades (meaning fewer school leavers)" - huh? Can't see how that would be a significant factor, especially not on a sub-decade timeframe.
- "digital disruption, accelerated by the advent of generative AI" - suggesting generative AI had a substantial role in digital disruption also seems like it gives generative AI too much credit. The disruption started happening well before generative AI became popular. I would argue that more substantial digital disruptors [in the context of education] have been Khan Academy (2008), Wikipedia (2001), and Youtube (2005). Professor Byrnes does discuss this later on - "Universities no longer have a monopoly on higher learning, as global EdTech providers can now bring quality course content, underpinned by engaging video, graphics and gamified learning approaches, to reimagine learning in ways that were unimaginable 30 or 40 years ago."
- "universities in 2030 risk being like public libraries in 2021: temples of knowledge that few visit because information and services have been dematerialised to screens." - it is disappointing that libraries are portrayed in this way. Laurinda Thomas has a great discussion about these dangerous myths on Youtube [TEDxWellington 2016].
There is a demand curve for university education, as there is for every other resource. To balance out a decrease in numbers, it's necessary to either decrease the price people pay for the service, or increase the rewards people get for use of the service. Increasing the asking price for education, at the same time as cuts to services, is a recipe for [economic] disaster.